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Disruption Radar

Markets & Credit

Markets & CreditEscalating

Counterparty Defaults and Correspondent Banking Stress: How One Link Takes Down a Chain

Trade finance is a chain of parties each assuming the next one stays solvent. When correspondent banking retreats from a corridor at the same time as a chokepoint closes, the assumption stops holding in the place it is hardest to replace, and the failure travels further than the original exposure.

4 min read

Markets & CreditStable

Bunker Price Volatility and Carbon Costs: The First Place Margins Break

Marine fuel is the largest variable cost in shipping and the one most exposed to two simultaneous pressures: carbon compliance costs that are structural, and crude volatility driven by a chokepoint crisis that is not. Thin-margin operators feel both first, and bunker suppliers feel it second.

3 min read

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