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Chokepoints & ConflictStable

Taiwan Strait and South China Sea: Knowing Your Concentration Before It Matters

Every other disruption on this list is a repricing exercise. A serious Taiwan Strait event would be a solvency exercise. The lane carries a large share of global container trade and most of the world's advanced semiconductor output, and the work that protects a portfolio has to be done before anything happens.

3 min read

Chokepoints & ConflictEscalating

Black Sea War Risk Premiums: The Cost That Arrives Before the Damage

In the Black Sea, the financial damage usually arrives before the physical damage. War risk premiums reprice within days of an incident and land on operators immediately, squeezing margins across a corridor where no cargo has been touched at all.

3 min read

Chokepoints & ConflictEscalating

The Strait of Hormuz Closure and What It Did to Trade Finance

Roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil and LNG moves through the Strait of Hormuz in normal conditions. Since 28 February 2026 it has not been normal conditions. For anyone financing, insuring or supplying a counterparty with Gulf exposure, this stopped being a freight-rate story and became a receivables story.

4 min read

Chokepoints & ConflictEscalating

Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb: What the Second Chokepoint Closure Does to Credit Risk

Bab el-Mandeb was the pressure release for a closed Strait of Hormuz. It is now closing too. For lenders, insurers and suppliers, the risk is no longer a single blocked lane — it is the loss of the alternative, and the cash flow consequences compound faster than most credit review cycles can register.

4 min read

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